Ample supply to check oil prices despite political uncertainty: Reuters Poll

The survey of 41 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $74.63 per barrel in 2025, up from a forecast of $74.57 in January.

U.S. crude , meanwhile, is projected to average $70.66 per barrel in 2025 versus $70.40 seen in last month’s poll.

“Unless supply is severely disrupted, price spikes should remain capped by the vast scale of OPEC+ spare capacity – this is what happened in October 2024 during the latest flare-up of tensions between Iran and Israel,” said Kim Fustier, head of European oil & gas research at HSBC.

The U.S. this week announced sanctions targeting over 30 brokers, tanker operators, and shipping firms involved in moving Iranian oil.

Earlier this year, the U.S. imposed its broadest package of sanctions yet, targeting Russia’s oil and gas revenues.

“However, it is not clear if these sanctions alone are strong enough to keep prices elevated. The overall dynamic suggests that prices might further fall due to expected oversupply in the market,” said Cyrus De La Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

The market is also monitoring Russian-Ukrainian peace talks. While analysts anticipate a peace deal between the two countries would likely lower oil prices in the short term, the longer-term impact may be limited.

News of a peace agreement could push the price of Brent toward $70, said Stratas Advisors President John Paisie. However, Stratas expects the price will quickly rebound once the market realises the impact on oil volumes will be limited.

In 2025, global oil demand is expected to increase by 788,000 to 2.0 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the poll.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in a monthly report, projected global oil demand would rise by 1.45 million bpd in 2025 and 1.43 million bpd in 2026.

Markets are seeking clarity on whether OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, will proceed with plans to boost oil supply from April.

In its last ministerial meeting, OPEC+ agreed to gradually raise oil output from April and dropped the U.S. Energy Information Administration as a monitoring source.

However, some analysts anticipate that OPEC+ will postpone the easing of output cuts to avoid further price declines.

“Healthy non-OPEC output continues to challenge OPEC+’s ability to increase its production, while demand is unlikely to reaccelerate meaningfully,” Fustier said.