Oil inches up, on course for first weekly gain in three

– Brent, WTI both up more than 3% this week
– EU slaps new sanctions on Russia, US also weighs more
– China stimulus expected to support demand
– IEA forecasts a supply surplus in 2025

Singapore — Oil prices nudged upwards on Friday, heading for their first weekly rise since the end of November, as additional sanctions on Iran and Russia ratcheted up supply worries, while a surplus outlook weighed on markets.

Brent crude futures edged up 5 cents to $73.46 a barrel by 0716 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 8 cents at $70.1 a barrel.

Both contracts are on track for a weekly gain of more than 3% as concerns about supply disruption from tighter sanctions on Russia and Iran and hopes that Chinese stimulus measures could lift demand in the world’s No. 2 oil consumer support prices.

Recent stabilisations came after oil defended a key technical level of $71, said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

“But there has not been much conviction to prompt a stronger price recovery just yet,” he added.
Chinese data this week showed crude imports grew annually for the first time in seven months in November, driven by lower prices and stockpiling.

“We have seen a bit of a recovery in refinery margins since the September lows, but don’t think it’s anything to justify the November crude import volumes,” said Warren Patterson, ING’s head of commodities research.

Crude imports by the world’s largest importer are set to stay elevated into early 2025 as refiners opt to lift more supply from top exporter Saudi Arabia, drawn by lower prices, while independent refiners rush to use their quota.

The International Energy Agency increased its forecast for 2025 global oil demand growth to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from 990,000 bpd last month, thanks to China’s recent stimulus measures, it said in its monthly oil market report.

However, it forecast a surplus for next year, when non-OPEC+ nations are set to boost supply by about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), driven by Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the United States.

“I guess with an outlook for a fairly comfortable balance (there is) little reason (for prices) to break out of this range for now,” ING’s Patterson.

Three of Canada’s biggest oil producers forecast higher output in 2025. Building on record U.S. production, Goldman Sachs expects Lower 48 shale oil production to grow by 600,000 bpd in 2025, although growth could slow if Brent falls below $70 a barrel.

Investors are also betting that the Fed will cut borrowing costs next week and follow up next year with further reductions, after economic data showed weekly claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose.

*Florence Tan & Siyi Liu; editing: Clarence Fernandez – Reuters